Can Real Madrid win La Liga if Cristiano Ronaldo leaves in January?

Real Madrid fans face a worrying few weeks in the January transfer window, as speculation about the future of Cristiano Ronaldo continues to grow. The club are determined to persuade him to sign a new contract, but the Portuguese star is known to be unhappy with life at the Spanish champions.

He is rumoured to be keen to return to England; possibly to Manchester United, although the Premier League leaders would struggle to match Madrid's asking price and the player's salary package. Manchester City, Chelsea, Paris Saint-Germain and the big Russian clubs look better placed - financially, at least - to sign the 27-year-old if he moves on this month, although a summer transfer seems more likely.

Ronaldo has given little away about his future plans and, in a recent press conference, even shunned the opportunity to give a fan-pleasing response about loving the club and wanting to extend his contract. He said: "I will not talk about my renewal any more. It's not important, what is important is that we win the upcoming matches."

While it is not certain Ronaldo will still be a Madrid player on February 1^st, one thing is perfectly clear: if their star player leaves, Real's already slim chance of winning La Liga is over.

They went into the winter break 16 points adrift of leaders Barcelona and seven behind second-placed Atletico Madrid. Jose Mourinho's team must win all their remaining 21 matches to have even a remote chance of retaining the title.

To do that, they need Ronaldo to be at the top of his game. He has netted 14 times in 17 La Liga games so far this term, but although he has produced the odd moment of magic, the Portugal international has been unable to replicate the form that saw him score 46 league goals last season.

Even if Ronaldo stays and gets back to his very best, Real Madrid would still need a remarkable collapse from a Barcelona side that won 16 and drew one of their matches before the winter break. With Lionel Messi producing performances at such a high level that an increasing number of observers believe he is at least the equal of Pele, Diego Maradona and Alfredo Di Stefano, the type of slump that would be required seems impossible.

The best outcome Real Madrid can realistically hope for domestically is to overhaul their neighbours Atletico and clinch second spot in La Liga. They will, of course, also want to strike a symbolic blow against Barcelona and ensure the Catalan club do not go the whole campaign unbeaten.

Barca's trip to the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu on March 2^nd or 3^rd - a game you can buy tickets for via www.spainticketbureau.com - may not have as much riding on it as their clashes last season, but Madrid will be desperate to show they are not as far behind their rivals as the table suggests.

There will be two interesting subplots. With Mourinho almost certain to leave Madrid at the end of the season, it will be the coach's final opportunity to get one over the club where he is still derided as 'The Translator'. It could also be the last chance to see Ronaldo face Messi in a domestic club game.

If that is the case and Ronaldo quits Real Madrid, it is difficult to see the club beating Barcelona to the title in the next few seasons.