Don't be Fooled by Prices!

When betting on football results people often look at the odds rather than the actual game they’re betting on. People seem to accept that a home team at short odds will win and as soon as their accumulator bet is on, they are counting their winnings and telling everyone how they will spend them! Of course we all know this is never the case and short priced teams are often the ones to reduce us to tears at 5pm on a Saturday afternoon. Arsenal to beat Sunderland at home seems a certainty, even at 8/15. But when the 0-0 result rolls along the vidiprinter at fulltime, you will wish you’d of steered well clear.

For this reason I like to look at matches that seem harder to predict at first glance, but with a bit more digging into form and previous results, a prediction may be easier to come by. One of the things to look for is a big result the week before e.g. a win against one of the big teams is more often than not followed by a horrific return to earth with an almighty crash the week later. Or on the other hand, a dreadful performance the week previous will result in an excellent performance and 3 points in the bag the following game. This is not a fool proof way of betting by any means but looking at results the game before does provide vital clues. For example, Birmingham City won the Carling Cup against Arsenal at Wembley, and then 6 days later are beaten 3-1 at home to West Brom. Aston Villa beat Blackburn 4-1 at home then got beat at Bolton. Wolves get a 1-0 win at Anfield and 3 days later get beat 2-0 at West Ham. The odds in these 3 cases will have been complied in favour of the team ‘in-form’ but as shown here, form is not always reliable in football.

Should Aston Villa have not put 4 past Blackburn there is no way Bolton would have been available at 5/4 for their clash. Bolton have a formidable home record with only 2 defeats all season, to Chelsea and Liverpool, but because of Aston Villa’s big win the weekend before, bookies had no choice but to shorten their odds, and therefore lengthen Bolton’s. This is a prime example of how a result the week before can give a match the week later ‘false odds’. Exactly the same applies to Birmingham City, after their Carling Cup win at Wembley, a home game against West Brom seemed a guaranteed home win. Therefore bookies had no choice but to offer Birmingham at much shorter odds than they would of been if they had been beaten at Wembley and so West Brom’s odds were lengthened.

I am in no uncertain terms saying this is a fool proof way of betting, I am merely advising you to look at betting against immediate form rather than with is because odds are usually overly shortened, giving value to the opposition.

Steering clear of betting on the result of a match is becoming ever more popular and people are leaning towards the ‘overs’ and ‘both teams to score’ markets. This way of betting gives the security that a bet won’t be lost if that home banker you were certain of are losing 3-0 at half time. Betting on over 2.5 goals is the most popular of the overs markets because the odds available are usually both close to evens.

For example:

Everton vs Birmigham - Over 2.5 market

Under 2.5 goals – 8/11

Over 2.5 goals – 11/10.

As you can see, there is only 2 outcomes possible in this way of betting, rather than the usual 3 (home win, draw, away win) in traditional football result betting. The best way to predict how many goals are going to be is to look at the average goals scored and conceded by both teams in the season so far. Don’t forget the result is irrelevant to you, as long as you can find clues as to how many goals will be scored.

Betting on both teams to score is a similar concept and the clue as to how this type of bet works is in the title. You can bet on, or against both teams to score. Using the same match as an example, the odds on offer are:

Everton vs Birmingham – Both Teams to Score

Yes - 6/5         

No – 4/6

Once again, the odds are just either side of evens and the value is usually to bet on a yes outcome rather than a no. I recommend this in all games where the away team is slight favourite to win and on any games where the home team tends to leak goals and fails to keep clean sheets. Once again, this is by no means fool proof but the odds provided often give greater value on betting on the 2 outcomes, rather than the 3 outcomes on offer in traditional result betting.

The main advantage of betting on these goal markets is that any football bet stays alive for a lot further into the game, giving you much more value for your hard earned money, if Arsenal are getting beat 2-0 at home after 35mins, it doesn’t matter because you are not concerned about the result. There is a chance, right up to the final minute, they will grab a goal and therefore both teams have scored, and over 2.5 goals have been scored.

Andy Clark

http://twitter.com/#!/AndyClark_TFT