An alternative betting tip to deluded faith!

England are about to kick off their World Cup campaign against the Yanks, I’m settling down to watch the game with a few mates, the question is raised “So who’s everyone’s money on for the World Cup?” and the triumphant chorus of “Engerlaaand” echoes round.  One of the lads proudly announces ‘I’ve got us at 8-1. What a price!’ 

I pay homage to my friend on being the David Dickinson of Bargain Betting Hunts, but what I’m really thinking is 8-1??? Are you mad??? 20-1 and maybe he’s onto a ‘Bobby Dazzler’ of a bet, but not 8’s. 

So why is 8-1 so bad? England were one of 8 seeded teams in South Africa, drawn in a group consisting of baseball players, skiers and camel riders, with a squad boasting some of the best players on the planet. Emphatic qualification for the finals bears testimony to this, as did our ranking of 8^th from the cannot be wrong officials at FIFA. 8-1 seems fair? 

Taking those St George tinted glasses off for a minute, 31 other teams stood in our way, many with fantastic recent international pedigree, whilst we boast one World Cup title won at home 44 years ago, bolstered by a ludicrous weight of expectation and a penchant for shooting ourselves in the footballs! 

In 2010 self destruct pre-season began early, it wasn’t vuvuzela horns that were being blown in anticipation of the World Cup, just that of John ‘lock up your WAGS’ Terry and so began our demise… 

Whilst Kit Kat tell us our best chance of victory is to eat some chocolate wafers and cross our fingers so we don’t Terry it up, we pile into the prices offered by the bookies on our boys lifting the trophy. 

You try and be pragmatic and back the Germans, but there’s always that schmaltzy (not a German midfielder) yearning to bet on England. You don‘t really want to cheer on the Sausage munchers and before you know it your waste deep in the bookies honey trap. 

The lure of the football betting utopia of an England win and the spoils of being rewarded for your unbridled faith are too strong. 

Remember though, English bookmakers are not England fans. The only thing they stand to gain from another star being added to the England shirt would be the publicity and comfort that the damage limitation of having offered a short price on England had paid off. 

The only laying of the England team should be on the betting exchanges. Users of Betfair and similar exchange bookmakers will be familiar with the term to ‘lay’, which is when you offer the odds on a team and take the hit when they win. In other words you’re betting on something not happening, acting the bookmaker. 

If you’re detached enough to take the view England weren’t going to win the World Cup and offered 8-1 to a fellow punter you would have to risk £160 to win £20. 

Big risk, small gain, but maybe that risk isn’t so great. Had I applied this £20 lay strategy on England in the 10 international football tournaments I’ve been legally able to bet on, I’d be £200 to the good. Backing England each time and I’d be £200 in the red.